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2:10 – Spring mud is meaningless in cities and towns where the soil was compacted over tens of years by urbanization. Once you move out of cities into open areas, forests, agricultural fields, non cultivated land, where soil is much more loose, and you combine it with mechanized vehicle erosion created by wheels and tracks and you get yourself into a messy situation. Just check the many photos of spring mud from the chechen wars periods to get the idea.
You talk to much just get to the point
It looks like the Russian military has been learning from your channel. You should charge them.🙏🏼👍🏽👏
I’m sorry Paul. For once you have spoken on something on which I am well experienced. I’ve operated earth machinery all my life. I know about moving heavy iron in wet ground. Those tanks and heavy weapons that are needed to move an army across land that does not have adequate engineering, base building, and compaction will soon churn roads and fields into a morass that can make the difference between winning and losing. I respect your education and experience but you’ve made a huge mis appreciation in this case. Because “ you just don’t buy it” is not enough to convince me that the strategists making the call on a counter offensive is incorrect.
Thats a sealed road, not a paddock
You DONT buy the "cant launch the offensive due to mud" excuse? SERIOUSLY, "excuse"?!?! Are you ignoring the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts on purpose for some reason? I mean, they ARE pretty vital areas. Do you think those areas are the same as driving on a paved road in Bakhmut… they're not. The fields in those areas are oceans of deep, gooey, soaking nasty mud and swamps. Anybody can look at the 2 feet of water flowing through the trenches in Zaporizhzhia that men have been posting all week and figure out that the ground is still super muddy!! I dont know what the fuck youve been watching.
The stuff the Biden administration abandoned in Afganistan would have rocked Uikraine's world. That's how Democrats roll.
you're a combat veteran?? You show a clip of behciels driving down roads and then say "what mud??"
That's a HUMVEE stop acting stupid! We have much more supior equipment! Stop embarrassing yourself 😢
Ukraine lacks air superiority
If you were an actual jounalist you'd take a quick look at the leaked pentagon papers that show what real millitary analists already knew, the Russians are killing 7 Ukrianians to every Russian.
They've created a cauldrin and practically surrounded Bahkmut and are about to capture 3 brigades of Ukrainians… That will punch a huge hole in the bogus narrative that Ukriane is 'winning' this war.
You okay Paul?
What will it change when they take Bahkmut?? Everything. Anyone who listens to this guy is being fleeced, thank you for your service but I'm thanking God that you're not advising the US millitary in strategics LOL
Bahkmut could start hosting paintball tournaments! Afterwords
3:00 sure in the cities where the grounds is well compacted but in the fields that get tilled every year not so much. Farmland takes much longer to dry out especially since the best farmland is generally on the lowlands and the best city lands tend to be on higher ground.
Volunteers will always be dangerous on both sides. It's now 2 conscript military's
Well….🤔🤔🤔😮 maybe Paul's having a bad day. I mean he does have a pretty unforgiving brutal group of fans. Who needs bots with this type of fans. Honestly I've noticed he seems to have some kind of neurological thing going on. Possibly, some head trauma from an IED in Afghanistan or something….could be. However, I do agree that his mud statement was too much.
Mud in cities/urban areas isnt really the thing you should be looking for.
this war is a different paradigm – russia is sacrificing huge amounts of troops – look at the numbers – thus far it is a wash and nuclear war enthusiasts like me are going to have to wait and see – ukraine needs more ammo 155 can do more than suppress, they are saving up for a counterattack but unknown if they have enough logistics and supplies to take hexagons #panzerblitz
ty for the service bro… but u are drinken some hvyduty koolaide
that was mud in the city what is outside the city is farmland u will drop 10 feet with a tank but it shud be starting to dry by now
Good explanation. Now we know why Ukraine is losing. The counterattack better be good.
Bro your ads are crazy every 3 minutes.
Prigozhin said in an interview today, April 24, that Wagner was losing 5 of his men for every 1 Ukrainian. That’s hardly “elite” in anyone’s book.
Not to mention you basically explain how to actually fight for the Russian intelligence watching your videos. Good job dude. 👏👏👏
When you talk about casualities why dont you tell the most of the casualities are by shelling and russians have far more mortarts than ukraine .the point being that casualities of ukraine should be more or the same if not more
Like WW1 Sturmtruppen…
Operation Michael, 1918 – did some gains, but didn’t last.
If you are judging the worth of fighting by the fact that the fight is over rubble, you don't get it. The fight is over the fact that there are Russians occupying parts of Ukraine. You may be a combat vet, but you have never fought on your home soil for your home, Americans have only been invaders luckily so this is not in your experience. Where Ukrainians draw a line to fight is on them, and i recall some months ago Zelensky said they will fight over every inch, that appears to be what they are doing. In Iraq or Afghanistan US forces would never take that stance, as tactically it is stupid. But in WW11 it is how Ukraine/Russia beat back the Germans, this tactic is genetically in their bones.
Your talking city mud. The boys have to cross field mud for an offensive. Farm fields are deep tilled so the moisture soaks in all winter. Doesn’t take much track or tire churning to turn the top foot of soil to pudding.
First wave moving fast can cross a field but no one on foot is going to follow up in the resulting ruts. When the farmers start doing field work in the west it will mean it’s dry enough to start crossing fields to the east or south
As the Ukrainian light infantry would not be involved in an armored push somewhat to the west and basic supplies took too long to arrive it follows that they should escape while they can.
Bakhmut is over and, as you say, it is a ruin. The brave men who Kiev was willing to sacrifice are of better use to post-war Ukraine alive, rested and counseled.
the Russians are losing much less men in bahkmut then Ukraine so I would imagine their guys will be coming out of this experienced while Ukr has 2 day trained kidnapped teens, lol unless your believing US estimates that are literally made up that Russia is losing 60% of its population every day lmfao
Instead of paving the roads, ukraine spent all their foreign loans on expensive foreign cars and waging war on their people in donbas.
As far as the mud, that's one or 2 roads, and I'm sure it's much different by the fields.
the ukrainians need to capture a russian conscript and interrogate them to find out there morale and see if they can proceed with the offensive. They need realtime intellegence if they are going to beat the russkies. Drones are good but they need boots on the ground to get the real picture.
The russian conscripts have nothing to lose, so they will fight to the last conscript. They can't retreat because the wagner groups anti desertion teams will take care of any conscripts who show any cowardice in the eastern front. The ukranian irregular forces are close to achieving everlasting victory, now is not the time to drop the ball. They need to be smart and get more intellegence from the front. Know the enemy and you will win every fight.
The russians are poorly fed and are always scrounging around for food, including eating dogs on occasion. But a hungry conscript is a formidable opponent. Don't give up the ship is a famous army motto, keep the push forward. The ukranians have the full backing of joe biden who hates the russians for helping the orangeman steal the election from hilary.
As a American taxpayer I'm getting frustrated. I have to agree with you either you want to fight or you don't want to fight. Either sign a peace treaty or start the counter offensive the longer you wait the harder it is to break through defense lines.
You have to be a complete moron to believe Russia is taking more casualties than Ukraine. And Jesus your looking a city high ground and streets and thinking it’s not to wet for spring movement!
Wagner forces are more experienced than what they’ve shown so far. Really, they’ve been practising in Afghanistan, Syria and have brutalized civilians in more countries than I know. Ukranian soldiers weren’t ready for an organized force. They adapt fast and will adapt to a more efficient method from Wagner. Slava Ukraine.
Why are you asking people to support your channel Paul, when you are deleting comments that point out your errors, particularly mine about correcting you saying the Mud wont stop Ukraine's Offensive. In review after you deleted my comment, I have checked and seen a multitude of comments that responded negatively to your comment have been removed. What is your go ??? This was a major error by yourself for a "military mind"! And not agreeing with you is not a "hate comment"!
Hey! dude thank u for covering ukraine 🇺🇦 .I recommend please becarefull on your vedios u post cause troll report u to admit to youtube I give u head up.
Just level the town. Leave no place for the Russians to hide. The town is already destroyed. Taking down the rest should not be that big a problem. It's a waste of time going from house to house. If there was really something to save realistically fine, but reports are Bakhmut is destroyed. So it's not going to matter. Civilians need to be forced to leave. Don't give them a choice. They must leave for their own safety. Life is number one. Make them go. Take them out on buses or whatever but get them out.
Well Wagner has become one of the best cqb unit in the world today…they’ve done thousands of door to door operations in Bakhmut alone.
It seems to me Russia have bigger fish to fry than to be stuck for months son a city that, although valuable as a transit point, does not nearly represent the value target they should be acquiring. So, my recommendation is that Russia blanke-bombt the whole of Bakhmut to where not even mosquitos will survive, then secure the whole of Donbas fast., while it observes the West's next move, cause that is where the party is at.
A city where draining away water is a part of the city design isn't what they're talking about when they talk about spring mud.
It's the conditions out in the wild.
And using this as a example of spring mud is just wrong and ignorant of you.
Again, because cities are designed to drain away water…
Nature isn't designed at all and won't do that.
Western Europe used to have some areas like that that wheren't drained during the bronze age.
But as agriculture spread people dug ditches and drained away the water etc and slowly the conditions changed.
Of course local factors also play a role and Ukraine is a bit special in that regard…
You can literally end up in a situation where a tank is buried up to the turret in mud…
….The in roads into Bakmut are covered by massive artillery and drones……so they will not be able to use the roads…If you have a column of vehicles on a road you hit the first ones and the last ones so now the vehicle are stuck in the middle they have to now leave the road surface and drive into the mud which will be slower and chaotic…..Try getting wheels trucked in the mud to re fuel the tracked vehicles is a disaster… former US army JSOC Tier 1. Operator.
I didn't realize modern mud technology has come so far since WW1.
Latest mud models no longer hinder movement of military equipment, so advanced.
Well l guess Ukraine army found out that its a very bad idea to kill POW and put it on the net 😅😅
Russia is gonna beat Ukraine
The mud down south in the farm fields it's a lot worse.
Come on! The mud isn't inside the city. It's out in the fields!
Russia version of liberation and freedom of thought in action. Iraq was left pristine during the war, and whatever was hit or destroyed was immediately paid for with a voucher, given to them by u.s. personnel. They could cash it in at any base. Russia and Chinese government are very similar. Destroy everything so they’re the only thing left standing.
From the reports that are coming out of Bakhmut and other parts of the front, it sounds like the Russians are running low on cannon fodder.
Look up videos of Trucks and Tanks in fields.. look up trenches. Yes in cities there is no mud but that's not where the counter offensive will take place. This is why the Russian column got stuck during last year, they had to stay on a road to avoid the mud and as a result got destroyed
Weeb Union or Combat Veteran? Who to believe concerning casualties on either side?
My understanding was that the recon groups were the low-skill conscripted sacrificial lambs thrown forward to draw fire and help pinpoint defensive positions. Then artillery would prep those positions for the assault teams. Anyway, I believe that in one of those intercepted Russian calls, a husband tells his wife or someone else close that he is being transferred to a unit that typically has 100% casualties each time it goes out. I’m pretty sure it was what they called a “recon” unit. Sounds more appealing than “bait,” or should we say “chum.”
Thanks for the updates, I always watch them, one thing about this update though is you said the mud didn't look bad enough to hold up an offensive, but that was inside a city that has had to deal with the mud since its founding and so has likely mitigated the worst of it (like putting down gravel or just removing some layers of topsoil), if you go outside the city's to the fields where farming is done (which is practically everywhere in Ukraine), you will find topsoil a few feet deep, which is very difficult to move in. Go to a farm field here in the states after it rains and you won't get far without the right equipment and even then it can be slow, I know this from personal experience and plus we don't really have mud like that here either. Not trying to fault you just trying to give you better information, again thanks for the breakdowns and thanks for your service!
That will be good land to build safe nuclear power plants on to feed Western Europe once this is over. I live on the Northern prairie of na and wind is factor. If Moscow wants to f* around forever they can factor in the bad ass wind too.
This time of year and also in late Autumn the Mud Season isn't called Rasputitsa for nothing! Literally, the 'time without roads', also known as 'General Mud'. So you 'really just can't buy that too much mud excuse. I'm not having it…' is a bit much to say to be honest, if not derogatory!
for weeks in almost every video you have been saying you know the weather and ground conditions better than they do. they can't march the tanks into the city they have to come across the fields unless you expect them to drive up single file slowly over a shelled out road that russians already have targeted by artillery. as YOU pointed out. the city is not worth a counter attack and what ever city they do go to they have to get into before they get to decent road conditions. As far as casualty rates you also covered the leaked documents in your videos. you know what the casuakty rates are.
The Mud is worse than you know. I have been there boots on the ground. It's BAD.
russia is doing a pretty good job now and they should wipe out the rest of bakhmut in a few days
they last few thousand ukraine soldiers only have a few days to live so hopefully they have some nice food before they are destroyed
The Ukrainians are going to have a hard time on the Offensive, every field is mined so they are stuck to the roads, Russia has superior artillery numbers, the Ukrainians are not going to rout the Russians they will not be able to move the amour in the way they are designed for it's going to be slow , drawn out costly operation that will be moving at a snail pace waiting for the sappier to clear the area.
2:15 How do you draw the conclusion that the mud seson is over, by looking at a green area in a city? That "never" get muddy, becsue a city normaly have draining (like a sewer) build on a high point etc. How do you know how the area of operation for the coming offensive look like, then it can be hundreds of km from here.
I am only a "desktop general" (so totaly unqualified) but it did take months for the coliation in the gulf war to asembling and prepear the force to liberate Kuwait, and then the coliation did attack they totaly crushed the Iraq forces, despite Iraq had months to prepear a defence.
Civilians still there and you are surprised ? They keep them as human shields like they did in Mariupol and elsewhere !? And soldiers losses around Bakhmut are according to US sources from 6:1 some days 12:1 – Ukrainian : Russian !?
Wow, you are sounding bad… many prayers for your speeding healing… Lord have mercy!
they are waiting for the ground to thaw out so they can jdam a route to the sea
Paul, those are urban shots, better drainage & more asphalt, the muck roads are out-of-town on unpaved roads.
PAUL YOU ARE FULL OF MERDE. A pick up truck in a town where road build up, and drainage is, is not the country side of soft plowed fields, has greed gotten to you. Ukraine knows when it is best for them? You have never been in a an armor or heavy weapons unit, it is now obvious! So don't shoot your self in the foot point! I did 8 years with armor 11th Cav in Germany cold war, 2nd Armored division 3 years so I understand mud and heavy weapons and the effects of mud. Ret VET, combat vet also! Was also there when the11th fielded the M1 so I well know M1 and weather. Units also have meteorological officers, Brigade level up on staff, US Forces any way, (WEATER) units for weather so lets let them decide. Weather fore cast for Ukraine says rain steady first 2 weeks of may so not ready looking down range.
This time, the Victory Parade on May 9 in Moscow will overshadow the mass mourning for Kim Jong Il. 🤪
some conscripts must be learning how to fight-to-survive, when they know that they will get shot in the back by their ‘comrades’
I unfortunately can't support all the youtubers I watch. I really wish that you guys would make a guild that stands up for each other and distributes donations they receive…
In April of 2022 everybody was saying how the war was moving east a flat land favorable for Russian strategy here we are 12 months later the war is raging on.
Слава Україні, героям слава
Bakhmut is a giant salt mine. I’m pretty sure those can’t move so it will need to be rebuilt.
Thanks Paul. Hope you feel better man.
For this guy to say he doesn’t believe the mud excuse yet has never fought or seen a conflict like ukraines.
Pretty sure nearly all the convicts in wagner are gone by this point.
Sorry, but you haven't got a clue about mud. Take a look at some of the videos from the fields. The offensive is not going to take place on roads.
Bakhmut is a mining town. Mining is coming back.
Paul, this mud is in the city where they have paved roads. In the country side that's a different story and there it is a show stopper.
Funny how your an expert in European warfare and in Ukraine if they say they require better weather i’m sure they know best
Hey Paul, thank you very very much for your content! Hope you get better soon 🙂
Greetings from Germany
Yea and outside of town the mud is up to yer neck donchano?
i think that 50000 soldiers what are mention in many media who are prepare for offensive are not enough to advance and cover flanks toward melitopol or mariupol, not to mention if they need to put any small place under siege and to continue moving forward, simple its to big area to cover with only 50k soldiers.
Why assume that assault units would have "low-skill infantry"? According to some accounts those Wagner grunts have training and experience, are highly skilled and know what they're doing. If they were low-skilled they'd suffer such high casualties there wouldn't be enough left to continue. But they've been storming into western Bakhmut with consistent efficiency in the past couple weeks. Sure they've got heavy-duty support but you need a special type of soldier who's willing to close with the enemy and fight to the death. Not for Western snowflakes or raw conscripts, convicts or otherwise.
How can you say there is no mud, when you show him driving on paved roads in what looks like a small city, you cant really compare that to some random field in the middle of no where, all the country is 1m square km, so i would guess there can be mud in one part and none in other parts, your argument with no map, because there is no mud in the cities and roads, dont really hold up to be fair
Stop saying bakmit honestly dude
As an American farmer in Ukraine, I can tell you first hand, if my John Deeres with dual tires get stuck, 40-50 ton vehicles will sink!
hold my beer
you sound a bit under the weather sir. take care please
and you have jitter in the audio again sir. please check ur audio settings
Paul I am shocked you don't know how well clay dirt retains water, I've seen photos as of today were mud is too thick A CLIP don't show u everything stay focused and think about 40+ton tanks but for sure you know this man.
Western Satanists should be coursed
4:12 Interestingly, this Ukrainian "TDF" (if that's what they are) guy is speaking Russian, not Ukrainian language.
Your not very informed of you don’t know how bad Rasputitsa actually is and there are plenty of videos showing it’s impact. Sure local rain and weather is a factor but if your trying to attack in it for sure it will stop all your heavy equipment and even on foot impeding any movement. It for sure makes it not ideal to attack.
"Are they more powerfull then we know?" Regarding Wagner… well… maybe that's the wrong question and a better one would be: were they already more powerful then they were portrayed as being, in the Western propaganda, by people like you?